If we can draw any concrete conclusion from the latest meeting of the European Council, it is that EU-Turkey relations are no longer and will never be the same.
The Union has realised that Turkey’s provocations are not just a problem Greece has with a difficult neighbour, but an EU-Turkish issue that touches the very core of the Union’s identity and its security strategy for the south-eastern Mediterranean.
It was made equally clear that the Union’s relationship with Turkey cannot continue as is. Ankara appears to be oriented towards neo-Ottoman aspirations that are incompatible with the EU’s system of principles and values. And this alone is a threat to the EU’s legal system and to the region’s stability.
In this context, the European Union must chart a new strategy on Turkey without further delay. Otherwise, Europe runs the risk of losing its credibility, which would weaken it politically.
The decisions of the latest European Council meeting were, in fact, a hesitant step. Nevertheless, this step was in the right direction. The Union decided to evaluate its overall relationship with Turkey, making it clear that this evaluation cannot be carried out on partisan terms. There is no ‘winner’ or ‘loser’. It also set a clear timeframe for this evaluation, saying it was open to a wide range of measures and expressly authorising the High Representative to expand the list of sanctions. The Union is thus reminding us that sanctions are but one of many measures that can and must be taken to exert pressure on Turkey.
Greece is not afraid of dialogue. It has notified all of its partners with regard to Turkey’s illegal activities, clearly setting out the framework: The only dispute for resolution is the delimitation of maritime zones based on International Law. It set Turkey’s abandoning the path of violations of international legality once and for all as a non-negotiable condition for dialogue. Turkey must commit to specific positive actions that confirm – in deed, and not just in words – its interest in a future of security and cooperation with Europe.
However, Greece is not short-sighted: It does not want Turkey to be cut off from the West. Greece knows that a destabilised Turkey would be an even more problematic neighbour, one that would travel an even more dangerous path outside the institutional framework of the EU.
As difficult as the EU finds it to move ahead, due to its cumbersome procedures, in the end it succeeds in taking the step. Even if it is only ‘one step at a time’, as Kyriakos Mitsotakis observed. Even if it wins only a small battle each time, until the next battle comes along. It showed this with the Recovery Fund. And in this case, we’re dealing with a complex foreign policy issue.
Europe’s role is to provide a solution on this, too. And the solution will be diplomatic. Greece has already won its seat at this diplomatic table. And as long as it keeps this issue open on the European Council agenda, as long as Turkey continues to be a problem for the whole region’s security system, Ankara will be exposed and under pressure to come to the table itself.
December 21, 2020